Many assumed that this could happen, but nevertheless the beginning of bets on the fate of political figures, entrepreneurs and celebrities market predictions Augur can not disturb.
In some cases, these rates clearly point to murder, as, for example, in one of the predictions: «Will be killed, not die of natural causes or accident».
In addition to the target prediction concerning individuals, some markets offer betting on whether there will be a mass murder or a terrorist attack. However, users can bet on the estimated number of victims.
Augur was generated Forecast Foundation, financed through the ICO in 2015 and launched two weeks ago on the Ethereum blockchain. Now users of the platform can create prediction markets, based on the results of any check events, from games of the world Cup and outcomes of elections to the price of the cryptocurrency and the weather.
Shortly after the launch of Augur was one of the most popular applications on the Ethereum. Predictions.Global display data markets Augur, says that at this moment more than 600 markets raised about $1.5 million.
Since Augur is not censored and consists of smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain that isn’t controlled by any organization, users from around the world can freely bet on their prediction markets. It may be of interest to players in jurisdictions where sports betting is prohibited.
However, the platform can be used by people who want to provoke or just to pay for the elimination of a public figure. Denying a prediction about the murder, individual or group of people, in fact, offer a reward for the head of a particular person. Theoretically, the killer could put on a positive outcome, to commit a crime and get rewarded for it.
Long before the first of such rates, users on the community forums Augur often discussed the possibility of creating such markets and the potential reaction of the public and the authorities. It was suggested that «reporters» (members appointed by the market makers to publish the results of the bets) should intervene and stop such rates.
«Community reporters Augur has a powerful instrument due to its ability to mark «invalid», — said the co-founder of the Predictions.Global Ryan Berckmans (Ryan Berckmans).
«However, the owners of the tokens Augur (REP) may challenge the decision on the invalidity of the market,» continued berkmans. «In other words, they can insist that the markets were resolved (users place their bets and get a reward in the air, and not in the REP tokens)».
But, ultimately, the reporters «agree to work in a manner that, in their opinion, will be approved by the owners REP». In other words, the fate of these markets depends, will consider whether the owners of the tokens normal and fair to bet on someone else’s destiny.
This raises the prospect of separation Augur on two platforms. One of them (Dark Augur) such rates will be the norm, and on the other the creation of such prediction markets will be impossible. The White paper project the described procedure of the fork, in case the owners REP will not be able to negotiate.
However, judging by the comments on Reddit, users come to the consensus that the stimulation of murder «100 percent immoral». One user writes:
«I think you overestimate the number of people who seriously would put money on the death of another person, unless he really did something terrible and will not be prosecuted otherwise.»
The lack of control
A potential way to stop the creation of such markets seems to be closed. On Monday night, the developers Augur announced that they waived the right of ownership on the function of the «escape hatch», which allows an assignee to discontinue the system.
«If the Forecast Foundation is compromised, a government Agency, the system will not be able to be disabled,» said the developer of the platform to Zsolt Micah (Micah Zoltu).
In other words, the government can’t threaten the creators of the markets Augur prosecution in attempts to modify or discontinue the platform (on the other hand, they could).
Persons who face immediate legal risk is the users who created the prediction market with the rate of the murder. According to a person familiar with the Augur system, was the use of the purse, funded through a stock exchange Binance, to create one of these markets. The man, who wished to remain anonymous, added that such users are probably easy to track down and identify.