Historically, prediction markets appeared in the forefront when listing applications of the smart contracts. In the White paper of Ethereum, released in January 2014 described the mechanism of creation of these decentralized platforms and then the acne Buterin talked about the potential of Futari – management models of large structures, where prediction markets play a decisive role.
The Project Gnosis
was founded in January 2015 by Martin Kappelmann (Martin Köppelmann) and Stefan George (George, Stefan). Initially, the founders planned to launch a working version in early 2016, however, as other projects, Ethereum, encountered numerous problems during development.
March 20 starts Gnosis X competition, in which developers will compete for monthly prizes equivalent to $100 000 in native tokens GNO. The goal is to build a platform Gnosis of prediction markets on the subject asked by team Gnosis. Each month will announce a new topic/category. Participation is open to all comers: you can register via Gitter, forum Gnosis, Gihub
and e-mail. Participants will be given access to the SDK Toolkit, and the Gnosis team will assist in product development. In the first round of the contest must be created prediction markets in three categories.
Scientific and research activities
In the work «Could gambling save science» the author of the concept of futarchy Robin Hanson (Robin Hanson) examines in detail the negative trend, when academic institutions encourage scientists to write the «nice looking» work instead of objective papers and shows how the prediction market may change this situation. Hanson believes that the use of prediction markets in the resolution of controversial scientific issues can be seen as the achievement of academic consensus. Agencies involved in the financing, have to subsidize the prediction markets on particular issues, and research laboratories will be able to pay their costs at the expense of the winnings from the previous correct predictions.
Hanson illustrates such a market mechanism on a hypothetical scenario, a deadly peanut butter: let the laboratory «BioLAB chew» found evidence that peanut butter is poisonous – a conclusion that wants to deny a company producing oil, «Eat poison». Then RC can raise the price of bets on its output, while the NL will be forced to either (a) spend a large sum to bring the price down, or (b) conduct their own research and pay for an advertising campaign to convince the players to bet on the direction of the market. However, in this case, even the workers of HER will get strong motivation to pick up the profit on the other side of the market in private. In addition, if the lie will be visible to outside experts, they will have a direct motivation to enter the market and counteract the rate of HER. In this example, Hanson shows how prediction markets create financial incentives for the participation of experts.
In modern science, prediction markets are used to evaluate reproducibility as pre-clinical, and scientific research. Problems of reproducibility of results in many fields of medicine, neurobiology, genetics, psychology and economy, especially if there is no mechanism for the accurate identification of the fact that it is impossible to reproduce. Thus, the problem of the reproducibility of pre-clinical research has a tangible value: in the United States costs amount to $30 billion a year.
Of course, the category of research activity is not limited to these examples: it can be a program for space exploration and technological development, for example: «Macbook release in 2018 will have a LCD or OLED display?», or «will the majority of unmanned vehicles by 2020?»
The jury in the assessment of applications in this category will be included as the founders of Gnosis in Kappelman and George, and Robin Hanson.
Assessment of the quality of the tokens
A continuing interest in the tokens and tokentalk causes the appearance of many fraudulent schemes, illegal, and just poor quality models tokens. Therefore, the second category Gnosis X – prediction market bets of which should demonstrate the quality of the model token, and to inform both consumers and the regulator on issues such as technical feasibility of the project and its road map, fair price and compliance with regulatory requirements. Examples of questions: «does this command to implement?», «Will reach tocancel the upper boundary?», or «will Drop the average price of a token X to XX% in istechenii such a period?»
Google has previously demonstrated a successful example of such market predictions. Its experts have used prediction markets to forecast market capitalization prior to initial public offering (IPO) and they are with reasonable accuracy predicted the capitalization of the company after the IPO.
Large corporations such as Electronic Arts and Microsoft have successfully used prediction markets to assess the quality of their projects. The questions asked in their markets, it can be adapted to the assessment of blockchain-based projects such as: «How many bugs will be found in a smart contract?» or «How many active users will have a smartphone by the end of the year?»
Projects in this category will assess Robin Hanson and Patrick’s Berarducci (Patrick Berardicci).
Integration in third-party blockchain projects
The third category prediction markets integrated in already existing applications. Example: Gnosis introduces a market to the app Propy – property on the blockchain, uniting in a smart contract buyers, sellers and other stakeholders. Using the prediction market is integrated into the Propy, users will be able to assess the future value of real estate, helping investors to enter the market at the most appropriate moment.
Another example of integration of market predictions is a project executor, carrying on the blockchain structure of management companies. We can say that this is the first iteration of the embodiment of the principles of futarchy, still existing only in theoretical developments and therefore of special interest to researchers of the Fund Ethereum.
The jury that evaluates the projects in this category include the CEO of ConsenSys Joseph Lubin (Lubin Joseph) and developed by Fund Ethereum Alex van de Sande (Alex van de Sande).
Gnosis and the Ethereum ecosystem
Alpha version of Gnosis became the first major Dapp on Ethereum smart contract was launched in the core network in August 2015, a week after the start of the first working release of the Ethereum – Frontier. The results have not impressed the team and the platform was moved to a test network. Nobody could imagine that the way to finished product takes almost three years. However, this applies to all major projects Ethereum: the first working version stalmine Dai from MakerDAO, the development of which began in 2014, was launched in December 2017; Digix, platform tokenization of physical assets, which account for the first ICO on the Ethereum launches its gold token DGX second anniversary of the ICO on 30 March. And of course, the main competitor of Gnosis: market predictions of the Augur, just finished the audit of the basic smart contracts; the date of its launch is not yet announced, but anyone can try their hand at predictions on a variety of issues in the test network.
The level of demand of the markets of the real world, all these apps can be a decisive factor in the value of ETH in 2018.