The past week has noted a versatile dynamics of trading. In particular, bitcoin at the end of the week failed to pass a minimum of 24 of June, which technically is a positive signal, and on the night of June 30, the market made a significant rebound, and the air and litecoin tried to overcome the nearest lows.
The whole formed a picture, when coins were oversold and on the background of a moderately positive news background has created the prerequisites in the direction of shopping. The only question is how much force the bulls to go against the established trend, if the market capitalization is still holding below $300 billion, and at the time of writing, the mark remained at the level of $256 billion.
The news background this week has pleased participants of the market. It became known that South Korea is investing $200 million in the development of the blockchain. And an additional driver of growth popular coins was the message that South Korea will not impose 10% tax on profit from cryptocurrencies.
Added to the optimism the news that the stock exchange Bithumb managed to almost halve losses associated with the recent break-in. However, it is difficult to judge what the news was decisive and allowed to expand cryptocurrency from a new low. In addition, the market has formed a steady trend towards pessimism in particular, many traders digested the sharp rise of bitcoin (nearly $700 per night) as another manipulation, after which it will begin a new wave of falling.
Now technical analysis:
BTC/USD (H4): the output of trend?
Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to go beyond the downward trend. However, the «digital gold» is below the resistance level of around $6837 $7162 that technically «presses» for free and zastavljaet her continue to decline. Thus, the continuation of the negative scenario is seen as a very likely prospect next week. The first goal, where bitcoin can go in case of a decrease is last week’s low at $5750. If this level is passed, then opens the prospect of falling to the next support around $5360.
As for the Elliott wave theory, it is still the center of attention the development of the fifth wave. Still, there was the development of the inner wave structure that supports movement of bitcoin downtrend, with the goal to $5360.
A positive scenario for bitcoin is an attempt to overcome the important resistance level near $6837.
ETH/USD H4: in the district level
The ether (ETH) turned around from a low near $406, which is a positive signal. In addition, the cryptocurrency is part of a downward trend that, technically, can create another wave of decline. Thus, we maintain the forecast in the adverse scenario: the achievement of support in the neighborhood of $360.
Also affecting sales and finding coins at around $450, before the price chart repeatedly tested this at least. So there is another reason to believe that the situation on the air yet in favor of the reduction. Only a confident break above $450 will give a signal on the passage resistance line of the downtrend.
Elliott waves also support the downward movement. At the moment you can see the development of the inner wave structure in favor of the latest impulse wave.
LTC/USD H4: the reversal from the support
Litecoin (LTC) has approached the support level near $71. In the case of its breakdown will open the prospect of reaching the next level in the neighborhood of $45. It is also necessary to take into account the location of the «digital silver» in the framework of the downward trend that technically signals to decrease. Therefore, the achievement of support at $45 is seen as a very likely scenario.
In addition, in case of breakout level near $71 litecoin will be fixed in a lower trading limits. As for the Elliott wave theory, after the breakdown level near $71 will be the further extension of the downward momentum in the framework of the five-wave structure.
XRP/USD H4: trading range
Ripple (XRP) overcame a one-week low, thereby prodigalities that continued decline is inevitable. The prospect of attaining support in the neighborhood of $0.2815 that from the point of view of technical analysis looks like a likely scenario. Also, do not forget about the presence of ripple’s within descending trend, which is an additional argument to sell.
The wave theory supports the decrease. Within the last impulse wave is developing extension of the five-wave structure, and it is likely that such a move would be in a lower trading range.
In the case of a positive scenario, RIPL will try to test the level of $0.5045.
XMR/USD H4: the triangle!
Monero (XMR) looks more confident than other coins. Cryptocurrency reversed from support and tested the resistance level near $133. But to overcome the important level failed, then the schedule of prices declined slightly. In addition, it is important to note the fact that monero out of the framework of the downward trend and is now in the triangle. From the point of view of graphical analysis this looks like a positive signal in favor of reversal. So a breakout of resistance at $133 will provide a strong signal to buy up to $147 and above, as the downtrend is already over.
Because there is output from the trend, there is reason to talk about the completion of the downward momentum of the Elliott wave theory. Puncture resistance in the neighborhood of $133 will provide a signal in favor of a new momentum.